During Leo Zuckermann’s presentation, “Political and Economic Perspectives in Mexico 2018,” which took place in Tijuana during an event sponsored by INCOMEX, the national and international political and economic life analyst and commentator talked about what Mexico will look like during the July 1st, 2018 election, including everything from the polls to the risk scenarios.
What will Mexico look like during Election Day?
According to Zuckerman, Mexico will face large economic uncertainty due to NAFTA, which will continue to generate some kind of volatile change, and violence in one of its worst moments in the country’s history. “2017 was the year with the largest number of homicides since 1997, when serious statistics started to be collected,” he stated. He explained that compared to last year, during this six-year term, organized crime has developed more businesses that generate violence.
He added that following the export of drugs from Mexico to the U.S., the second most profitable business is the theft and sale of gas. “What started as a small business in rural communities has now become a very sophisticated operation run by organized crime that results in millions of Mexican Pesos in income and, as thus generates much violence.”
Election Day will arrive with a level of corruption that worries and outrages the country, Zuckerman said. According to the 2017 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), published by Transparency International, Mexico fell one point in one year; from being in number 30, the country fell to a 29. This scale goes from zero (greatest corruption) to one hundred (greatest honesty). Therefore, Mexico is in 135th place out of 180 evaluated countries.
In conclusion, we have large economic uncertainty and volatility, a terrible violence problem, large social indignation stemming from corruption, a very unpopular president and an anti-PRI environment.
“In addition, we are one of the most corrupt countries in Latin America, a group of nations that shares the same geography, ethnicity and history. So much rot has generated something very positive. Corruption had never been perceived by Mexicans as one of the country’s main problems, yet this has changed,” he emphasized. Since 2015, the polls have shown that, today, corruption outrages the population. Tied with insecurity, this is the topic that most concerns voters.
In addition, Mexico has a very unpopular president. “Never, since serious surveys have started taking place in our country, had we observed such a low presidential approval rate,” assured Zuckermann; “Carlos Salinas reached the end of his fifth year in government with a low approval rate of 80%, Ernesto Zedillo with 71%, Vicente Fox with 61% and Felipe Calderon with 54%. Enrique Pena Nieto’s approval rate was just 26%.”....... Continue reading article here