Baja California after the elections, what’s next?

Those who won and those who lost

Baja California after the elections, what’s next?b1mas4
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Ok, finally the ordeal has ended.

This 2013 will be marked as the worst citizen participation in the democratic process in Baja California since the political change that began back in 1989. Very far from the civic revolution that woke up with Ernesto Ruffo as the candidate for the PAN party for governor of the state in that same year (1989). The parties and their chosen ones have been stripped down and left naked in a society which shows that the last thing that they want is to go to the polls. However, with the small percentage of votes that were made, the "results" are more or less like this:

Those who won

Kiko Vega with this victory now extends the PAN party’s state government dominance to 30 years. But,the important thing now is to see how and with whom will he integrate his cabinet with, since in this campaign he joined forces with the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), and will most likely have to build a coalition in his new government administration.

Kiko Vega can now close his political cycle as Governor, which the third time seemed to be the charm. Hopefully he has the strength and intelligence to govern well, to clean the house and that his government does not become just another six years that will just benefit his political party (PAN) members in the state. New ideas and new perspectives are needed urgently. With this victory in the governorship, it has come to a big breath of relief for Gustavo Madero and Jesus Zambrano, both who are national leaders of the PAN and PRD party respectively.

With the defeat in Tijuana, the PAN party members may possibly now recover their party, especially of the hands of those who control the pattern and have been deciding on the nominations for the past 15 years. Believe it or not, the PAN party has won since all the "leaders" of the groups have been defeated. Now, it is very likely that they will be replaced by new members, but this is something we will just have to wait and see of who will take the lead after the resignation of Kiki Mendez.

Winning some political ground is also characters like Gaston Luken, who as of right now is probably thinking of what’s next. He has already said publicly that he would like to become a member of this party. He should apply himself to put together and see what will remain of the PAN party in Tijuana. This leads us to reflect on the role of political parties and their future. They will have no choice but to cut down on some members and make way for citizens with social recognition and prestige, regardless of social their class, otherwise, the abstention will rein election after election.

The winner on the PRI party’s side is Jorge Hank, as he was part of the deciding factor in Baja California with the victory of Jorge Astiazaran. The Doctor now becomes the friendly face of the owner of the race track. Hank largely owes the cleansing of his public image due to that the new generations have no reference to his past. We'll see how much power he has in the decisions of the Doctor during the next three years in Tijuana, and how will the relationship with the governor Kiko Vega is like. Let’s hope that the mayor will not end up just filling in the seat in office while the decision are made and sent from all the way from the offices at the race track. The other question is: How much does Kiko Vega owe to the Engineer (Hank) for the governorship and the crossover voting in Tijuana? Many think that the debt was paid off with the Mayors position. We'll see if it was enough for Hank.

With this result it upholds the alternating regimen with a governor from the PAN party and a mayor from the PRI party. We have to wonder how much voters have pondered on the convenience of a divided government. They are forced now to commit to govern in favor of all and not read this as a demagogic appeal, in order to make citizens believe in their government administrations again.

Those who lost

For Fernando Castro Trenti, this defeat now sums up to number 4. The question now is if he will continue to administer the defeats of the PRI party in Baja California. He also has the option of returning to his multi-member council. Losing here also is Manlio Fabio Beltrones, especially since FCT's candidacy was gratned by President Peña Nieto. This defeat should be a great lesson for the other great party who must reform itself seriously now.

Special mention goes to the Electoral Institute for Citizen Participation of Baja California. Even though far, far away are the electoral results that were obtained throughout the nineties. The institute’s promotion campaign for votes was truly a disaster. If we add their bias and passiveness, plus the fact that the leader of that institute is the brother of a PRI party member, it is an Institute that is discredited upon the eyes of society. The 250 million that it cost to organize this election, were literally thrown away in the trash if we see the percentage of voter turnout which was only around 40%.

Those who always win regardless of the outcome

Gaston Luken and Jorge Astiazarsn are the names you can start writing down as candidates for governor in 2019. Gaston Luken has some political power that he must increase in order to be in position to get a nomination for mayor of Tijuana. For this we will have to make very strong decisions and will have to deal with those who control the PAN party standard in Tijuana, but we still have to wait and see what the governor Kiko Vega says of his aspirations. Perhaps he might have to work as an outsider. Moreover, Dr. Astiazaran must perform well as mayor of the main city of the state, which will depend on preserving his social recognition.

See you in 2019!

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Omar.Martinez@Sandiegored.com

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