SAN DIEGO.- Last year, the conventional wisdom running-up to the first round of voting of this special election for mayor was that the Faulconer campaign, and his allies in general, were going for a strategy based on the idea that facing the young, Latino "inexperienced" David Alvarez in the second and definite round of voting was preferable to facing Nathan Fletcher, the Qualcomm executive former Republican turned Independent turned Democrat who was quickly endorsed and backed by some of the more established figures in the Democratic Party.

They hammered Fletcher as a flip-flopper and untrustworthy. A temporary alliance between the Faulconer and Alvarez campaign even arose. The Faulconer campaign preferred to face a relatively unknown in the general campaign.

If this was indeed their strategy, they forgot two things: First, with the Hispanics or Latinos representing more than 28% of the population, both getting their vote and getting them tovote is crucial, as it was for Bob Filner and his victory over Carl DeMaio in 2012. And second, what could motivate Latinos more than the prospect of having the first Latino mayor in San Diego's history?

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Nathan Fletcher on election night found out. Even with the barrage of attacks against him coming from all sides, a final SurveyUSA poll showed him in second place with 24%, thus qualifying him for the final vote in February. But David Alvarez demonstrated that his 22% in polls was actually more of a 27% on election day, proving once again that there's a hidden power in motivating not just Hispanics in San Diego, but union members, African Americans, young people and other voters that normally turn out only once every presidential election.

And so far, the latest polls show the same effect. SurveyUSA had Alvarez down by double digits against Faulconer in early January, but slowly, Alvarez has closed the gap to an statistically insignificant 1% difference, with Faulconre receiving 47% vs 46% for Alvarez and 7% undecided.

"Faulconer can't seal the deal", said Jay Leve, founder and editor of SurveyUSA. "Alvarez is demonstrating the same kind of remarkable, last-minute resilience that he showed in the general election, where he came on strong and overtook Nathan Fletcher at the wire."

Leve's polling underestimated Alvarez's support last time, and others have said that Hispanic and Democratic voters are being under-sampled again this time around.

The discrepancy between polls stems from one fact: just how many Latinos will come out vote on Tuesday? "Will we see another Alvarez miracle Tuesday? That depends upon who we see standing in lines, waiting to vote," Leve said, bluntly adding that "if the people standing in line, waiting to vote, are older white men, that bodes well for Faulconer. If the people standing in line waiting to vote are younger, women of color, that bodes well for Alvarez."

The power of the Latino vote was already demonstrated in 2012, with Bob Filner's victory.

"Filner's strategy to directly reach out to otherwise ignored community proved to be a success. Filner's campaign was the first in San Diegos's history to use a Spanish language social media strategy and to directly work with Spanish media outlets on both sides of the border [in order to] influence Latino voters and...their friends and family", said a local political consultant who was in charged of Latino outreach during Bob Filner's administration. Bob Filner became the first Democrat in the mayor's office in 20 years.

"With a race as close as this one, the election results of next Tuesday will be determined by Latinos and this have a heavy inclination towards David Alvarez", added the official.

Why is it so important for Latinos to vote and one to be mayor?

The political consultant also stresses the importance of a lack of Latino representation and leadership in San Diego, as it "is reflected in the public policies of city agencies, and there are many examples of it", such as a lack of investment in public transit for the south bay and on border infrastructure.

"The San Diego mayoral election has the potential to show unequivocally that, united, us Latinos can be very powerful, and wield it", said Rafael Castellanos, a Port of San Diego commissioner in a quote for SanDiegoRed.com.

"The power of being the determining factor in the election of the leader of the eight largest city in the United States. It is time now to show our strength and influence in the political activities of San Diego", he added.

Influencing the political activities of San Diego is the central message of the Alvarez campaign also, as the candidate and other Hispanic analyst have criticized the lack of consideration for the needs of communities outside of the North County and Downtown, communities with large minority populations and on the border. And they blame it on a lack of representation in the city's political structure, something that is fixed by simply getting more of these communities to vote.

So far, both enthusiasm and deep polling into the Latino community give hope to Alvarez. "Make history" is now the Alvarez campaign's motto with Get Out the Vote efforts in Spanish.

"For those who are citizens and have the right to vote, the vote for San Diego mayor will be historic and relevant to our region. David Alvarez and Kevin Faulconer are showing in contemporary times the old testament scripture of the David and Goliath" said Sara Gurling, a humanitarian activist and president of the pro-immigrant rights group, Border Angels, as an example of the bubbling sentiments among the community in these last few weeks before the election.

A day before the election, there are signs that the Latino vote could surprise at least one campaign and several analyst The National University System Institute for Policy Research reported that more Democrats (63,567) have cast their absentee ballots than Republicans (58,492), although most of those come from north of the I-8 divide. Also, there are several thousand "Decline to State votes" (32,772) that could go either way. But, the Institute also is measuring a lot more voter participation than in the November election, which could bode well for turnout among Hispanics, African American and other Democratic voters who usually sit out non-presidential elections. President Obama's endorsement of Alvarez over the weekend is also projected to raise awareness of the election.

Nevertheless, it will be tough work for Alvarez and his allies to get out the vote. His district was the one with the least turnout in the last election, with only 27% voter participation. So any extra vote they can get out of their GOTV campaign, will be helpful.

Enrique Morones, founder of Border Angels, makes the case that this is an election worth coming out to vote for. "Tomorrow is the most important day of our lives about the future of San Diego, our vote is our voice, vote on Tuesday for mayor, Sí se puede!", commented Morones.

Just how many Hispanics are there in San Diego?

San Diego county is the tenth largest in terms of the Hispanic share of the population, at 32.7%, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, thanks in large part to the Hispanic majority cities of Chula Vista and National City, although these elections are for the cityof San Diego, so their Mexican majorities will have to sit and watch. The city itself boasts a 28% Hispanic population, according to the 2010 census.

But of course, Hispanics, African American and other demographics have trouble coming out to vote on special elections like these.

Even if you are pro-Faulconer or Alvarez, it is never enough to stress the importance of voting and making your voice heard. Tomorrow Tuesday, February 11, 2014, we at SanDiegoRed.com encourage you to make it so.

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jose.sanchez@sandiegored.com