A report published by the University of San Diego's Justice in Mexico research group indicates that overall homicide rates in Mexico have decreased through the first six months of this year. The declining trend is a further continuation of 2013 where rates also declined from the prior year.

The report, which was published today, is based on independent news sources and government agencies that track homicide levels in Mexico. The report indicates that "although crime-related killings have remained relatively stable in Mexico in recent months," overall homicide levels have decreased.

The report specifically differentiates between general homicides, and those specifically related to organized crime.Tallies from independent news sources vary a bit, but if averaged indicate that the country experiences between 600 and 700 organized crime related homicides per month. One of the Mexican government's official count has a starker tally of over 1,500 homicides per month. If this trend were to continue, this would total around 16,000 organized crime homicides for 2014, a decrease from the estimated 22, 732 all homicides in 2013 (including those unrelated to organized crime) according to Mexico's national census institute INEGI. This represents a decrease of approximately 12% from 2013 to 2014, on top of an estimated 15% decrease from 2012 to 2013.

On a state by state basis, the number of homicides varies greatly. The State of Mexico, Guerrero, Chihuahua, Jalisco and Sinaloa account for more than half of the countries homicides, with Guerrero coming in at first place, followed by Chihuahua. Both Sonora and Baja California were the exceptions that did experience increased homicide levels, although not necessarily related to organized crime as this is not differentiated in official government tallies.

Source: Justice in Mexico, based upon official government tallies

The study notes the importance of methodology when conducting these tallies, which results in widely divergent findings from one official tally to another. While Mexico's national census institute bases its count on death certificates lodged with the civil registry related to death by "unnatural causes" and therefore does not differentiate ones related to organized crime, the other official tally by the Executive Secretary of National Public Security System (SNSP) bases its count on murder investigations related to probable murders.

The following chart compares how official tallies and independent news sources vary significantly.

Source: Justice in Mexico

To read more of this report, visit the Justice in Mexico project website here.

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