Erick Guerrero Rosas, political and financial analyst, commentator for the "Hechos" (Spanish for facts) program for TV Azteca, author of the books "Devaluation, the crisis of '94" y "Calderon's Inheritance," presented the conference "2015-2018 Forecast" during a recent monthly Coparamex breakfast.

He assured that there are good economic expectations for Mexico resulting from the structural reforms, although he said expectations may take place during the next presidential term. In other news, he stated that there is a new world economic crisis approaching, whose epicenter will again be the North American economy.

Guerrero Rosas signaled that the Mexican pessimism regarding the economy has been nourished by the approval of a "painful" fiscal reform. Any fiscal reform that is put in place in any economy in the short run, he assured, will necessarily create economic damage. The degree of the damage that is created by the tax increase will depend upon the economic cycle it occurs during. "If the tax increase occurs when the economy is buoyant and with a strong growth rate, the hit will hurt but will be overcome relatively rapidly; but if the tax increase occurs when the economy's growth is low, the effect will be stronger and will take longer to assimilate itself," he explained. The problem in Mexico, he said, is that the fiscal reform presented itself precisely during "the worst moment of the economic cycle." Even though the Mexican economy grew 4% in 2012, for various reasons in 2013 the growth rate fell to 1.4%; it was at this moment of deceleration that the fiscal reform was discussed and approved.

The analyst remembered that in 2014, articles in national newspapers stated that the SAT presumed the growth of taxes collected thanks to the fiscal reform, 7.4% during the first semester. In addition, they declared that the country's federal organizations would end up winning the grand tax collection as they would be receiving records funds as a result.

"The newspaper Reforma described it very well," stated Guerrero Rosas, when it published that between January and September of 2014 the state and municipal governments received from $1,172,336,000 pesos the federation, a historic amount, at least since 2000, evaluated in real pesos. This includes participation, assistance and all the federal subsidies.

"But as a consequence of the increase in funds given to governors and mayors, it was necessary to lower the target growth rate, which replaced the creation of 150,000 jobs," he commented.

Towards the end of 2014, the articles were less positive. "Tax collection shines, tax payer suffers" was the title of a Reforma article where it was commented that the federal government had improved its collection, but at a cost for the tax payers, who now have less deduced and pay more.

Nevertheless, Erick Guerrero coincides with the international financial elite in that in the long term the Mexican scenario will look different; achieving to position itself as one of the great world economic powers.

For the Wall Street Journal, "Mexico is converting itself into a magnet for... Continue reading article here

Find more news at BusinessConexion

Follow Business Conexion on Facebook, Google+ and Linkedin

editorial@businessconexion.com