During a meeting with the Otay Mesa Chamber of Commerce, Dr. Deborah Riner, former president of the United States Chamber of Commerce in Mexico, discussed the United States’ possible exit from NAFTA and how this could affect American production chains.

Dr. Riner emphasized that more than 5 million jobs in the United States depend on trade with Mexico; when comparing state by state, she added that California is the most vulnerable state with 556,000 jobs depending on NAFTA. Other states that would be negatively impacted are Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Texas with the largest number of jobs in danger of being displaced.

She mentioned that if there is no final agreement, California should prepare itself for the worst and hope for the best as it would be the state that would be most impacted in terms of job elimination.

Half of U.S. imports coming from Canada and Mexico are intermediary goods that are then used in local production, with a much higher quota than those coming from the European Union or China. From energy production to automobile manufacture, debates regarding commercial politics should recognize the singularity of many states in the North American supply chain.

Dr. Riner concluded by saying that, “all we can do is wait for the next round of negotiations, see how President Trump’s administration will negotiate and try to reach a final agreement, as well as see how the future presidential elections in Mexico will impact these negotiations. We must not forget that there are political points of view and economic realities”.

The industries of some U.S. states have become strongly dependent on trade with NAFTA countries. Here are the details of how an interruption of NAFTA would impact productive chains.... Continue reading article here

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