The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its end-of-year outlook, projecting above-average temperatures for several states, California among them.
The seasonal forecast maps out expected conditions across the country for the remainder of the year. The states most likely to see above-average temperatures between October and December are those in the north, a list that includes California and Nevada.
According to the map, much of California faces a 40% to 50% chance of temperatures exceeding the normal average.
On precipitation, the outlook points in the opposite direction: Southern states are the most likely to record above-average rainfall through the end of the year.
Southern California in particular faces a 33% to 40% probability of heavier-than-normal precipitation.
Experts say the projections fit the arrival of El Niño, a phenomenon that typically splits the country in two with some regions receiving above-average rainfall while others contend with drought.
They note that the position of this “dividing line” shifts from year to year depending on the jet stream. This year, however, forecasters warn that El Niño should not be treated as a minor event: the probability of a high-intensity El Niño has climbed above 90%, and some experts put the odds at 75% that it will become the strongest such phenomenon since 1950.
