Tijuana Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for Baja California’s 2027 governorship, according to a July 2025 survey by consulting firm Grupo Ierós.
The poll, conducted among approximately 1,650 residents across the state, provides a detailed snapshot of the current political climate ahead of the next electoral cycle. Burgueño leads with 25% support, followed closely by Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe, the federal government’s Delegate for Social Programs in Baja California, who holds 23%. In third place is Julieta Ramírez with 15%.
The results mark a significant boost for Ruiz Uribe, who had registered just 10.7% in earlier polls. Ramírez, in contrast, has seen her support drop from 21.4% to 15%. While she brings political experience to the table, analysts note she has yet to establish a strong connection with voters across the state.
Senator Armando Ayala currently holds 12%, solidifying his position as a competitive contender, bolstered by his legislative work in the Senate. Former Tijuana Mayor Montserrat Caballero follows with 10%, with her political background keeping her in the race but without a surge in momentum.
Claudia Agatón and Fernando Castro Trenti round out the list with 8% each. Agatón is working to raise her profile, while Castro Trenti faces a steep challenge with 55% of respondents expressing an unfavorable opinion.
Grupo Ierós emphasizes that these figures reflect current public opinion and do not represent official candidacies. As the 2027 elections draw closer, Baja California’s political landscape is expected to continue shifting.