Tijuana’s commercial sector faced a challenging year in 2025, with economic uncertainty affecting both residents and local businesses. As the year closes, industry leaders reflect on the hurdles they navigated and share cautious optimism for a potential rebound in 2026.
Looking Ahead Amid Last Year’s Challenges
Rebeca Aguilar Santuario, president of Tijuana’s National Chamber of the Restaurant and Seasoned Food Industry (CANIRAC), acknowledged the difficulties but expressed hope for the year ahead.
“Around mid-October, we began to see some improvements that allowed us to breathe a little. The electricity issues were a setback, but overall, the year ended slightly better than we anticipated, despite its challenges,” she said.
Aguilar Santuario emphasized that 2026 will require creativity and innovation from the sector. She also noted ongoing pressures, such as the Payroll Tax (ISN) and proposed reductions to the work week, which could contribute to inflation. Rising supplier costs, already signaled for 2026, are expected to be passed on to consumers. Nevertheless, she remains confident that the industry is poised for an improved year.
Elisa Ibáñez Aldana, who assumed the presidency of Coparmex Tijuana on January 1, 2026, echoed the sentiment, describing the close of 2025 as “very difficult” for regional businesses.
She highlighted challenges including tariff-related uncertainty, high operational costs, and Baja California’s steep 4.25% payroll tax rate, which business groups are lobbying to reduce to 3%. Security concerns and organized extortion also weighed heavily on the local business environment.
Looking to 2026, Ibáñez Aldana anticipates slow but positive economic growth exceeding 0.5%, bolstered by the formal implementation of the USMCA trade agreement in July. Businesses will need to adapt to increased scrutiny from tax authorities, though no new tax hikes are expected. She praised local entrepreneurs for their resilience, noting their efforts to sustain operations and preserve formal employment during a demanding year.
