The second presidential term of Donald Trump has delivered a mixed economic impact to Mexico’s northern border region, according to local industry leaders. While bilateral trade with the United States remains robust, the border state of Baja California has suffered a sharp decline in employment, losing more than 27,000 jobs in the industrial sector over the past two years.
Federico Serrano Bañuelos, president of the local Manufacturing Industry Association (Index Zona Costa Baja California), outlined the dual effects of the current U.S. administration as the period has brought both positive and negative impacts to the region.
On the positive side, Mexico has solidified its position as the United States’ top trading partner. Recent data shows bilateral trade exceeding $448 billion in exports in the latter months of 2025.
“We are seeing significant pressure to find substitutes for Asian imports, with a focus on increasing national and regional content in supply chains. This shift presents a direct opportunity to expand our northern border manufacturing sectors,” he stated.
However, these gains are overshadowed by significant job losses, which Serrano attributes directly to U.S. tariff policies. He claims the tariffs have triggered uncertainty, driven investment to other countries to avoid extra costs, and jeopardized key industries like automotive, technology, and textiles.
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“The threat and application of tariffs have reduced the volume of Mexican exports. Over 80% of Mexico’s export production has been affected, alongside remittances, due to stricter immigration controls and an unfavorable exchange rate,” Serrano said.
He also criticized the Mexican government’s longstanding economic reliance on its northern neighbor, noting a failure to leverage free trade agreements with more than 50 other nations in America, Europe, and Asia.
“To reduce an abusive dependence on economic superpowers, we must urgently diversify our markets and alliances. This demands that we prepare our human capital through retraining and adopt the tools of artificial intelligence, robotics, and climate adaptation, changes that will fundamentally reshape our society. Therefore, strengthening alliances across the border between Mexico and the United States is essential for the mutual fortification of our border regions,” he opined.
Serrano concluded by advocating for a global vision with local action, strengthened regional supply chains, and concrete efforts to preserve investments and jobs.
Related: Baja California Ranks Among Mexico’s Top Economies Under Governor Marina del Pilar’s Leadership
