Baja California continues to gain residents, but it is doing so at a significantly slower pace than during the boom years of the 1990s and early 2000s.
State demographic projections indicate that the population living in inhabited private dwellings will reach approximately 4 million by 2025, more than double the 1.7 million registered in 1990, though still exhibiting a downward trend.
The state’s trajectory over the last three decades highlights its growth:
- 1990: 1.7 million
- 1995: 2.1 million
- 2000: 2.5 million
- 2005: 2.8 million
- 2010: 3.1 million
- 2015: 3.3 million
- 2020: 3.7 million
- 2025: ~4.0 million
Today, Baja California ranks 11th nationwide in population, officially standing at 3,978,593 inhabitants, driven largely by Tijuana’s status as the most populous municipality.
Baja California Is Growing, But Not Like in the 90s
The annual growth rates illustrate what is going on in Baja California’s demographic evolution. The state’s expansion rate fell from a peak of 4.3% in 1990 to 3.8% in 1995. It was around 2.3% in the early 2000s before dipping to 1.5% in 2010, briefly ticking up to 2.4% in 2015, and slowing further to 1.1% in 2020.
The data suggests this cooling trend is due to shifting social dynamics across the region, including declining fertility rates, an aging population, and changing migration patterns.
So, while Baja California is still growing, it is at a more gradual pace than the rapid expansion from thirty years ago.
