Recent polling data from PollsMX places Ismael Burgueño at the forefront of Morena’s candidates for the Baja California governorship, according to the firm’s latest survey released July 10, 2026.
The Tijuana mayor, currently on leave from office, secured 28.8% support among the movement’s evaluated contenders, a considerable lead at this early stage, as the party begins consolidating potential leadership, assessing regional influence, and gauging public sentiment ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle.
Trailing behind are Julieta Ramírez with 17%, Montserrat Caballero at 14.9%, Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas with 7.5%, Evangelina Moreno at 6.4%, and Armando Ayala rounding out the field with 5.4%.
Beyond the numbers, the survey underscores a key political dynamic: Burgueño has solidified his standing as a formidable force on the state’s electoral map, leveraging his base in Tijuana, which is Baja California’s most populous and politically consequential municipality.
Related: Ismael Burgueño Tours Mexicali Neighborhoods as Citizens Rally Behind National Sovereignty
His strong positioning stems from three pillars that often prove decisive in internal party contests: grassroots organizational strength, widespread name recognition, and a well-established track record within Morena. Together, these factors cast him not merely as a familiar face, but as a unifying figure capable of rallying support as the party charts its course toward the state’s next leadership transition.
With a lead of nearly 12 percentage points over his nearest rival, Burgueño holds a distinct edge over the rest of the prospective candidates. While Morena has yet to formally open its internal selection process, the poll grants him a clear early advantage though the process will undoubtedly bring fresh surveys, strategic realignments, and shifting political calculations.
The findings carry added weight given Baja California’s status as a pivotal battleground in the 2027 electoral calendar. For Morena, preserving its hold on the state government will depend on maintaining internal unity, projecting competitive strength across the territory, and fielding a candidate who resonates with a broad cross-section of voters.
Though the official nomination remains months away and will ultimately be shaped by the party’s internal mechanics, the PollsMX data positions Ismael Burgueño as a central figure in Baja California’s political narrative.
As such, his lead in the polls does more than measure early party sentiment, it signals the political capital he has accumulated in the movement and hints at the influential role he may play in the state’s upcoming gubernatorial succession.
