With more than a year to go before the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections, Ismael Burgueño Ruiz, Tijuana’s mayor who requested leave of absence, has cemented his position as the frontrunner within the ruling MORENA-PT-PVEM coalition, according to the latest long-term tracking survey from Statistical Research Corporation (SRC).
The question asked was “Who do you think should be the MORENA-PT-PVEM candidate for governor of Baja California in 2027?”. The full results are as follows:
Results – July 2026
- Ismael Burgueño – 37.4%
- Julieta Ramírez – 21.8%
- Undecided – 14.8%
- Alfredo Álvarez – 12.5%
- Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe – 7.9%
- Montserrat Caballero – 6.5%
- Norma Bustamante – 5.8%
- Claudia Agatón – 4.9%
- Other – 4.9%
- Armando Ayala / Fernando Castro Trenti – below 5%
Burgueño Ruiz’s Rise
When tracking began in June 2025, Ismael Burgueño stood at 22.1%. Over 13 consecutive months of polling, he has steadily gained more than 15 percentage points, peaking at 37.7% in June 2026 and holding steady at 37.4% in July.
While most other potential candidates have remained stuck in low single digits between 4% and 12%, Burgueño broke decisively from the pack in March 2026, when he climbed to 28.6%. He continued to build momentum reaching 31.2% in May and crossing the 37% threshold the following month.
The latest numbers are confirmation that Burgueño has the strongest name recognition and the most competitive profile within the Morena-PT-PVEM coalition for the governorship of Baja California.
Survey Methodology
- Fieldwork date: July 28, 2026
- Sample size: 1,000 telephone interviews with residents of Baja California aged 18+
- Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points
- Confidence level: 95%
- Tracking period: Monthly surveys from June 2025 through July 2026
