David Saúl Guakil stands out as favorite opposition pre-candidate in Tijuana: Plural MX poll

This was defined thanks to a poll

According to a poll made on the third week of August by local media outlet Plural MX, businessman David Saúl Guakil stood out as the best opposition candidate that could win the Municipal Presidency of Tijuana over MORENA.

This poll, taken between August 21 and August 24, stated that "if the election were to take place today", current mayor Montserrat Caballero Ramírez would get 28.3% of the votes while David Saúl Guakil would get 19.9%, an advantage of only 8.4 percentage points by the MORENA party member.

The rest of the votes would be diluted among Juan Carlos Hank of PES BC, with 11.4%, Erick "El Terrible" Morales, also of MORENA, with 10.1%, lieutenant colonel Julián Leyzaola of Fuerza por México with 9.2%, former governor Jaime Bonilla Valdez of PT with 7.8%, and in last place, Max García of PAN with 4.2%. 9.1% of people polled said that they didn't know who to vote for.

Plural MX, whose director is journalist Lauro Ortiz, explained that this poll was made between August 21 and August 24, among adult residents of Tijuana with a voter's ID that confirms their address and age. The total sample was 800 interviews face to face.

The first filter was those who didn't show their ID and the sample's design allowed for a margin of errors of 3.5% +/-, and a level of trust in the 95 range, the pollster explained.

Numbers showed that David Saúl Guakil is the best positioned among the opposition parties, with 8.5 points above his closest opponent, while Mayor Montserrat is above him by less than a tenth.

The votes he would get, however, wouldn't be enough to stop Montserrat Caballero Ramírez's reelection, which is why an alliance with the political organization in the best position with other parties that are not part of Guakil's party would be necessary.

This poll however is just a picture of a moment in time, 10 months before the election which will take place on June 2, 2023, which is why there could be variations of electoral preferences during this time, in one way or another.


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